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Optimal control of epidemics in metapopulations

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Optimal control of epidemics in metapopulations

Auteurs : Robert E. Rowthorn [Royaume-Uni] ; Ramanan Laxminarayan [États-Unis] ; Christopher A. Gilligan [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

Journal of the Royal Society Interface [ 1742-5689 ] ; 2009.

RBID : ISTEX:D7517C7B2BAA04744BF3369C1671567394322D31

Abstract

Little is known about how best to deploy scarce resources for disease control when epidemics occur in different but interconnected regions. We use a combination of optimal control methods and epidemiological theory for metapopulations to address this problem. We consider what strategy should be used if the objective is to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show, for a system with two interconnected regions and an epidemic in which infected individuals recover and can be reinfected, that equalizing infection in the two regions is the worst possible strategy in minimizing the total level of infection. Treatment should instead be preferentially directed at the region with the lower level of infection, treating the other subpopulation only when there is resource left over. The same strategy holds with preferential treatments of regions with lower levels of infection when quarantine is introduced.

Url:

https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/V84-BRB7D6RG-Z/fulltext.pdf

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0402

Affiliations:

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Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Little is known about how best to deploy scarce resources for disease control when epidemics occur in different but interconnected regions. We use a combination of optimal control methods and epidemiological theory for metapopulations to address this problem. We consider what strategy should be used if the objective is to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show, for a system with two interconnected regions and an epidemic in which infected individuals recover and can be reinfected, that equalizing infection in the two regions is the worst possible strategy in minimizing the total level of infection. Treatment should instead be preferentially directed at the region with the lower level of infection, treating the other subpopulation only when there is resource left over. The same strategy holds with preferential treatments of regions with lower levels of infection when quarantine is introduced.</div>
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Optimal control of epidemics in metapopulations

Optimal control of epidemics in metapopulations

Source :

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri